Projects where the current month, quarter or day will end for key metrics, with a low-high range based on how accurate the projection has been for your store in the past. Use it for "how are we pacing", "where will the month end" and "will we hit our target" questions.

Key Features:

• Month and quarter projections for sales, orders, new customer orders, ad spend and contribution margin
• A likely range (low/high) and a typical error, measured on your store's own past periods
• Two projection methods shown side by side: recent run rate and last year's shape
• Optional targets: amount still needed, the daily pace required and whether the target is within the likely range
• Projected Blended ROAS (MER) and NCAC for the period
• End-of-day projection for today based on the Today page

Parameters:

• store_id (integer, required): Store identifier
• horizon (string, optional): Period to project. Allowed values "month", "quarter", "today". (default: "month")
• metrics (string, optional): Comma-separated KPI keys to project for month or quarter, e.g. "net_sales,tot_orders". Totals and counts only, not ratios. Common keys: "tot_cv" (Total Sales), "net_sales", "tot_orders", "nc_orders", "nc_cv" (new customer sales), "total_spend", "ecomm_gross_profit" (contribution margin), "ecomm_net_profit" (contribution margin after marketing). Ignored when horizon is "today". (default: "tot_cv,net_sales,tot_orders,nc_orders,total_spend,ecomm_net_profit")
• targets (string, optional): Targets as "metric=value" pairs, e.g. "net_sales=300000,tot_orders=4000". A target metric not listed in metrics is added automatically. Ignored when horizon is "today".

How it works:

• Month and quarter: complete days so far (through yesterday, as on the KPI dashboard) plus the remaining days estimated two ways. by_run_rate gives each remaining day the average of that weekday over the last 4 weeks. by_last_year_shape scales the total so far by how the same days finished last year (52 weeks back, so weekdays and events like Black Friday line up).
• The projection is replayed at the same point in each of the previous 12 periods. method is whichever of run rate, last year's shape or their average missed least, typical_error_pct is its median miss, and low/high are its 10th to 90th percentile misses applied to today's projection.
• With fewer than 6 past periods to test against, the range is simply the two estimates and typical_error_pct is not returned. A metric with less than 4 weeks of history returns an error instead of a projection.
• Today: the Today page's numbers so far, divided by the share of the day the last four same weekdays had completed by this time (median as the projection, min and max as the range). Ad spend syncs with a delay during the day, so its projection runs low until the evening.

Usage Patterns:

"Where will we end the month on sales?"
→ horizon="month"

"Will we hit $300k net sales and 4,000 orders this month?"
→ horizon="month", targets="net_sales=300000,tot_orders=4000"

"How is this quarter pacing on new customer orders and ad spend?"
→ horizon="quarter", metrics="nc_orders,total_spend"

"How is today tracking?"
→ horizon="today"